Earlier this week the NTIA released the results of the ASR Analytics evaluation of the social and economic impacts of the BTOP awards and a brand-new Public-Private Partnerships Guide. The NTIA will be hosting a webinar about BroadbandUSA and the PPP Guide on January 28. (BroadbandUSA is a new initiative at the Department of Commerce to promote broadband adoption and deployment.) The timing of these reports coincides with President Obama’s announcement to support community broadband.

Locally the excitement in the evaluation is the case study on the Blandin Foundation’s BTOP project – the Minnesota Intelligent Rural Communities (MIRC) initiative. The ASR folks came out to visit the MIRC projects at the onset of the initiative and then again as projects were winding down. I’m not sure they were prepared for what Blandin had going. Most of the other BTOP projects they visited were geographically contained to smaller space and had few moving pieces. MIRC spread out in 11 communities around the state.

Here’s what they report on the projects in aggregate…

Increased Economic Output: The largest long-term social or economic impact due to BTOP infrastructure spending is a yearly increase in GDP in the areas served by the new broadband infrastructure. ASR used two studies, Czernich et al. (2011) and LECG Ltd. (2009), to extrapolate the increase in economic output that could be expected in counties receiving BTOP funded infrastructure. For the base case of a 2.0 percent increase in broadband availability, BTOP infrastructure spending could be expected to yield $5.7 billion in increased output annually, using Czernich et al. (2011) as a basis for extrapolation, or $21.0 billion annually using results from LECG Ltd. as the basis for extrapolation. BTOP infrastructure spending could be expected to yield $5.7 billion in increased output annually, using Czernich et al. (2011) as a basis for extrapolation, or $21.0 billion annually using results from LECG Ltd. as the basis for extrapolation.

Long-Term Increased Levels of Employment: Kolko (2010) and Gillett et al. (2006) provide a basis for estimating the increase in employment due to broadband infrastructure spending. Based on Kolko’s estimates, the additional broadband infrastructure provided by BTOP could be expected to create more than 22,000 long-term jobs and generate more than $1 billion in additional household income each year. Results from Gillett et al. (2006) suggest at least 6,900 long-term jobs could be created in the year following the construction of BTOP infrastructure, and potentially each year for at least the next four years due to increasing employment growth in areas with new broadband availability. These employment increases would result in an increase in household income of more than $300 million for each year employment increases by the estimated amount in newly served areas.

Value to New Broadband Subscribers: The Allen Consulting Group (2010) finds the value of broadband Internet access to the average American household is about 3.4 percent of average household income. Based on the number of households and a 2 percent increase in broadband availability, the estimated value of broadband to new subscribers is approximately $2.6 billion per year.

Reduced Prices and Improved Service for CAIs: Where available, the evaluation study team collected subscription speed and price data from CAIs connected by projects in the evaluation study sample to quantify improvements resulting from BTOP connections. Representatives of sixty CAIs provided ASR with broadband subscription speed data for eight-six individual sites; forty-seven of these sites also provided pre- and post-BTOP broadband subscription price data. In general, CAIs connected by projects in the evaluation study sample saw a decrease in their monthly Internet subscription costs per Mbps. Community anchor institutions served by BTOP infrastructure experienced a decline in broadband prices of approximately 95 percent, regardless of institution type. As an example of the potential importance of price reductions of this size, K-12 schools connected by BTOP grantees could experience a cost difference of $2 billion annually, or approximately $268,000 per CAI, assuming that existing infrastructure could support this level of service and that the prices per Mbps reported in the evaluation study sample are representative across all K-12 institutions.

Improved Availability for Those Living in Rural Areas, Seniors, and Those Living in Poverty: As shown in Figure 1, BTOP infrastructure projects led to increases in broadband availability, especially in rural areas and areas where seniors and those living below the poverty line resided. Based on the estimated 2 percent broadband availability increase from BTOP infrastructure projects, more than 4.3 million people across the United States gained broadband availability from June 30, 2011 to June 30, 2013 due to BTOP infrastructure projects.

And here’s a summary of what they found with MIRC…

• Demonstration Community staff report multiple instances of individuals retaining jobs or moving up in their positions as a result of attending a Digital Literacy training or using another grant resource such as PCCs or a PCs for People home computer. The total number of individuals obtaining jobs is not known, as no grant-wide mechanism was in place to track job placements resulting from the grant.
• Small businesses throughout rural Minnesota have benefited from the increased digital presence. They gained knowledge and skills through statewide partner courses and technical assistance in several Demonstration Community projects. This impact was particularly large in tourist areas, where many customers rely on the Internet to discover, navigate to, and access information about local businesses. In addition, networks of businesses have formed to share resources and best practices, supporting innovation in the use of digital tools into the future.
• Several Demonstration Community projects have increased the skills of individuals hired to implement the projects. For example, high school students in Benton County learned how to use global positioning system (GPS) tools and geographic information system (GIS) software to help farmers and other agricultural businesses. In at least two other communities, projects trained high school students and paid them to help get businesses online, increasing students’ digital and entrepreneurial skills in addition to facilitating community participation.
• The 2,067 PCs distributed to low-income households resulted in many impacts. Some of the stories the evaluation study team heard included parents pursuing higher education while they took care of their children at home; parents being better able to communicate with their children’s schools using the Internet and email; and individuals searching for and finding jobs.
• Local governments around the state created websites and community portals to make information and processes more readily available online. This resulted in increased community and civic engagement by residents in these communities.
• In each Demonstration Community, representatives reported increased partnerships, relationships, and capacity that resulted from many institutions working together on the same goal. It has also given much of rural Minnesota the understanding and framework to drive change through a broadband-based economic development model.
• MIRC set the stage for the increased efficacy of statewide partners working toward broadband adoption. For example, through grant activities PCs for People was able to increase its distribution networks in rural Minnesota, opening new offices and depots in several Demonstration Communities. This has increased the capacity for distributing free and low-cost computers to low-income individuals throughout the state