The Benton Institute for Broadband & Society looks at leveling off of broadband adoption in the last few years (The End of Progress: New Data Raises the Alarm that No Progress May Be the New Normal for the Digital Divide)…
The 2024 American Community Survey (ACS) shows essentially no change in wireline broadband adoption between 2023 and 2024 and just a 1-point increase in the share of households with broadband of any type. The primary growth in broadband adoption of any type occurred among households with subscriptions to cellular data plans for smartphones. The figure below shows the data.
The author (John Horrigan) calls this a consequence of an income constrained saturation point and explains why this is a societal issue…
The consequences of this income constrained saturation point becoming an enduring condition are important. Key services in our society are increasingly optimized in a way that assumes people have both mobile and fixed-access subscriptions. Think about healthcare services. They are increasingly designed such that online tools contain test results, post-intervention care instructions, and wellness information as well as a platform for telehealth sessions. A fixed (i.e., wireline) connection at home (with a sufficiently large video display) facilitates video interactions with healthcare providers. For check-ins, co-pays, and reminders, many systems are designed with mobile access at the forefront. Educational or job training applications function best with large displays on fixed connections, while mobile access supplements with scheduling and other resources. With generous (or unlimited) monthly data allotments, fixed subscription plans give users latitude to benefit from such applications that mobile plans alone do not allow.
He offers some policy solutions…
This leaves policy intervention as an option to reverse the tide. The return of a program such as the Affordable Connectivity Program (ACP) is an obvious tool, as it proved effective in bringing millions of households online and maintaining connections for millions more low-income homes.8 The chances of ACP’s revival do not seem good at the moment. But it is worth noting that all the current promises of the digital revolution—productivity enhanced by artificial intelligence, improvements in health care delivery and outcomes—are premised on widespread and robust connectivity among all citizens. The current data on broadband adoption indicate that this connectivity will not likely happen due to market forces alone.