I’ve asked a few folks to send broadband predictions for 2014. I’m hoping to post them in the next week or so. (Let me know if you’re interested in sharing your look at the future!) I’ve started with my own – just to offer a model. Because I normally focus on broadband in Minnesota, I’ve tried to look more broadly at broadband.

Wireless

I’ve had a few conversations in the last few months on wireless options and the role wireless will have in ubiquitous broadband. I’ve always figured there is a place for wired (fiber) and wireless options but I figured wireless would be an interim solution for the un/underserved that would remain even once fiber emerged to offer better mobility and offer options for tourists and other short timers.

Well I’m starting to expand that role of wireless and will be watching the pilot project involving libraries and whitespace spectrum in 2014. The idea is to connect branch libraries via white space spectrum – which will help get libraries better broadband. But the spectrum at that level acts more like a point-to-point connection. The spectrum broadband itself does not reach the end user per se in the way 3G or 4G would. However, with the better middle mile access, the library might be able to offer better local wireless access options. (Especially with emergence of stronger Wi-Fi tools.) It would create a mesh network built upon various types of wireless networks. A fiber backbone is still important but suddenly wireless options makes more sense. Especially if the local wireless network can reach a community and provide access without data caps.

That’s a big role for a library to play – but I’ve heard similar innovation happening in the private sector as well.  That mesh of licensed/unlicensed spectrum wireless boosted by Wi-Fi options could be a winner. Or there may be an option to mesh satellite for video and 4G wireless for Internet. They may be finding a provider or provider partnership that is interested. The idea of losing POTS (plain old telephone service) makes me a little nervous but I suspect a national provider would be more interested in looking at rural markets if POTS went away. (I’m not advocating – just predicting.)

Perhaps there are better, homegrown solutions with local providers. I always like to see the local provider do well. Because I think it’s human nature to offer better service to your neighbors than strangers and I think it’s nice to investment in your neighbors. But again I think it will come down to partnerships – perhaps public-private, perhaps private-private.

I still have reservations about wireless – and it comes down to cost, caps and captive audience issues for the end customer.  GigaOm just posted an article on broadband usage per household. I was surprised that there were some households that don’t hit data caps – because I have teens and as the article points out houses with teens blow the caps out of the water. But I don’t think you can sustain a business assuming that your customers will be retired couples or single ladies. And I don’t think you can count on customers who will pay what I pay – which is $345 month for 4 phones and one mobile wireless hotspot. (That cost is separate from our wired broadband plan.) Eventually even I will find time or get sick of that expense and will find a better plan.

Also I have some concerns about filtered access via wireless. Ars Technica just posted a good article on the potential of net neutrality changes…

…we have the guarantee that ISPs can’t place any giant restrictions on what content we can access over the Internet.

That’s because of the Federal Communication Commission’s 2010 Open Internet Order, a set of network neutrality rules that forbid ISPs from blocking services or charging content providers for access to their networks.

If the law were overturned, ISPs could more easily steer customers to their own services and away from those of their rivals. They could charge companies like Netflix for the right to have their videos prioritized over other types of Internet traffic, perhaps indirectly raising the price consumers pay for streaming video and making it more difficult for startups to compete against established players who can afford the “Internet fast lane” fees.

That’s what Verizon wants, as its lawsuit to overturn the network neutrality law went to court in September. A ruling is likely to come in early 2014 from the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.

Perhaps these issues will not be an issue if a local provider steps in and offers different packaging to current national providers.

FirstNet

I think FirstNet (the public safety broadband network) will become a player soon too. It’s got to get built, it’s a tough business case, it’s an opportunity to reach the hinterlands. Combined with some of the mesh wireless network I describe above it could be a real option. The downside for using FirstNet is that public safety needs to take top priority in time of emergencies. The upside, is that time of emergency is the anomaly.

I think the Internet of Things will become a bigger and bigger deal and I think it will reach people who thought the Internet had nothing for them. I think we’ll see applications in healthcare, education and local government that will really push the desire to get people to adopt. I often think of the folks from Eindhoven who spoke at the 2009 Blandin Broadband conference. They brought everyone online because in the end they knew it would be cheaper to offer services via network than in person. That was their bottom line business plan. My hope is that Minnesota will find a niche as a player in the Internet of Things.

Hackathons

Finally I think events such as civic minded hackathons will breed greater civic engagement. They will push the envelope in what people expect from their local governments in terms of transparency and access to information. But they will also push the expectation for better broadband to access and use information. We have the tools to help citizens turn data into information and actionable knowledge – we just need to spread the word. Once that happens I think we’ll see increased engagement (people adopting a hydrant) and maybe some entirely new ways to do things.

There’s my two cents for broadband in 2014.