Doug Dawson from CCG Consulting writes…

A year ago, John Horrigan wrote an article for the Benton Foundation that predicted that as many as 5.6 million households would drop their home broadband connection due to the impact of the One Big Beautiful Bill. He based that assessment on the changes that the OBBB will make to federal programs that benefit low-income families.

He writes about household circumstance changes since that prediction that might impact the outcome and ends by talking about the broadband industry aspect of it…

Horrigan’s prediction may not fully come to pass because there is a middle-ground to abandoning broadband. Earlier this year, I worked with two ISPs that serve areas that are primarily low-income. Both ISPs told me that they are experiencing a big increase in a new kind of churn – customers that temporarily drop broadband because they can’t afford it, but who then resubscribe a few months later when they’ve scraped together enough money to buy broadband again.

The other thing that a cost squeeze does is to drive homes to look for broadband alternatives. I think that people in this category are the ones dropping cable companies and going to FWA broadband and other less expensive options. Unfortunately for families in this position, lower monthly rates typically mean slower speeds and less reliable broadband performance. A lot of low-income families have stayed with DSL for years because it was the least costly option in cities. However, in recent years, the big telcos have increased the cost of DSL to be the same price as fiber to get people off the copper network – but these higher prices are often too high for too many homes with low incomes.

There is a nationwide consensus that we are all better off when most families have broadband and can partake in the many benefits broadband brings to a household. If we don’t somehow change the current path we are on, I think Horrigan’s estimate of 5.6 million households that drop broadband will be far too low.